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The tech wreck is probably not over, despite Friday’s market comeback.
Analysts expect the shakeout in stocks to continue after the long Labor Day weekend, especially in technology names and the Nasdaq, areas of the market that notched the sharpest gains.
After August’s 7% gain in the S&P 500, stocks started September strong, and then just as quickly rolled over. The Nasdaq lost 5% Thursday and was down sharply Friday but pared losses to decline 1.5%. The S&P 500 was down about 2.3% for the week, even after a 3.5% loss Thursday.
“I think this is a good wake-up call and a reminder that there are risks out there,” said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management. “In August, we did take a little bit off the table.”
Analysts expect the week ahead to be busy, with holidays ending and more market pros back at their desks. There is some economic data, most importantly Friday’s consumer price index. The reading on consumer inflation is expected to show little change in core inflation with forecasts for a gain of just 0.2% in August, or 1.6% year over year.
Froth blowing off
The stock sell-off came as market pros were becoming increasingly wary of froth in the market, particularly in tech and momentum names. On Friday, it was revealed that SoftBank was behind billions in large options bets on individual tech stocks, like Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Tesla. News reports said the trades were made over the past month, and SoftBank had been building unusually large positions in call options, or those that bet the prices of underlying stocks would rise.
One analyst said the fact that SoftBank was “gunning the market” makes him worry that there is more selling to come in Nasdaq names. As SoftBank bought call options, the sellers had to buy stocks, conceivably driving up prices in a trading feedback loop.
“It’s just a trip to the casino,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “If they’re supposed to be an investment company taking a long-term horizon, then trying to juice your short-term return through options, you’ve turned into a hedge fund.”
JPMorgan strategists said they expect the market to recover gradually, but there are still presidential election uncertainties looming in the next couple of months.
“The significant reduction in previously extreme long positions in Nasdaq by momentum traders should allow the equity market to recover over the coming weeks, as happened after the June 11th correction,” noted JPMorgan analysts. “But a repeat of the strong gains seen during July and August is less likely over the next two months.”
Grohowski said there could be more selling in the tech and internet companies, or those that were viewed did well as workers stayed home and the economy was shutdown. “It’s not the start of a big lasting correction, but a forewarning the next couple of weeks and months are going to be choppy. I think it’s going to be a sideways kind of market,” Grohowski said. He added the market could be choppy in the week ahead.
“We’re a little more cautious, not to mention the market is trading at 23 times our earnings estimates for 2021,” said Grohowski. He said the fact there is about $4.5 trillion in money market funds is a bullish signm since that money could find its way into the stock market.
Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives strategy at BTIG, said the S&P 500 could dip to its 200-day moving average, or 3,092, before rebounding, which would be about a 15% move in total.
“I don’t think the sell-off is over. Nasdaq is up 83%s since March 23, the S&P is up 63%,” said Emanuel.
Small Caps Best Day After Labor Day
In the last 21 years, only Russell 2000 has registered an average gain of 0.16% on the Tuesday after the long Labor Day weekend. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have struggled with negative average performance. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have been up five of the last eight years, but DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all have fallen for the last three years on Tuesday. On Wednesday the market’s performance has been varied. DJIA has performed the best, up 76.2% of the time with an average gain of 0.25%. S&P 500 is worst, up only 42.9% of the time with an average gain of 0.13%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Big August: Bullish or Bearish?
Big August 2020 logged the 4th biggest August percent gain for the S&P 500 since 1949 and the 6th biggest since 1930. But, is this bullish or bearish for the market in the coming months? Hopefully the table below provides some perspective by comparing the previous Top 20 S&P 500 Augusts since 1949 to July, September, Q4 and the succeeding “Best Six Months” November-April.
Subsequent Septembers were down 15 of 20 years for an average loss of -1.0% (median loss of -0.7%). Q4 is positive with gains in 13 of the 20 years for an average gain of 1.0% (median gain of 3.0%). The following Best Six Months are more bullish, up 16 of the 20 years with an average gain of 7.6% (median gain of 8.5%).
Looking at just the 7 years that were preceded by big Julys shows some improvement for September but Q4s are worse, containing the largest Q4 losses. Back-to-back big Julys and big Augusts were followed by improved Best Six Months results, up in all 7 instances with a higher average and median gain and the top gain.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Analyzing the Jobs Report
The jobs market remains strong, as the August nonfarm payrolls came in at a solid 1.37 million jobs created, right in line with expectations. This was the fourth consecutive month of gains, up 10.6 million over this time frame. In March and April more than 22 million jobs were lost, so we still aren’t quite to half of the jobs recovered though.
This was the second consecutive month there was a very weak ADP private payrolls number ahead of the monthly jobs report, adding to the worries, but the actual nonfarm payroll number was once again quite solid. Don’t forget, just yesterday we saw initial jobless claims come in at 881,000, the lowest number since the week ending March 14, another improving employment number.
The big surprise in today’s report though was the unemployment rate fell to 8.4%, from 10.2% last month and an expected 9.8%. This was the lowest unemployment rate since 4.4% in March.
“This was an impressive report and once again showed the economy remained quite resilient,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But 8% unemployment is 8% unemployment, so let’s not get too excited, but we’ll still take this improving trend in the employment picture.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, even though more than 10 million jobs have been created in the past four months, the sad truth is we are still quite a long way from recovering all the jobs lost due to the pandemic. In fact, looking at previous cycles, it has taken years for all of the lost jobs to come back and this time doesn’t appear any different.
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One thing to consider is could this solid number make it harder for Washington to agree on the next stimulus plan? We are watching this closely, but with the two sides still close to a trillion dollars apart, today’s report will likely do little to help the two sides come to a quick resolution.
Last, don’t forget that stocks gained more than 60% in less than six months, so some weakness would be perfectly normal. In fact, looking at the two previous strongest starts to a bull market ever (’82 and ’09) both saw some weakness right around now.
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3 Charts To Watch If You Are Bullish
The S&P 500 Index just closed the door on its best August since 1986, making new all-time highs along the way, while also closing up five months in a row.
First things first, make no mistake about it; this is a new bull market. That of course doesn’t mean it will last years like previous bull markets, but a nearly 57% gain in 5 months is what we’d classify as a bull market.
Here are all the bull markets going back to the Great Depression and where this one ranks.
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Now let’s dig into the 5 month win streak. It is quite rare for stocks to gain from April through August, as the summer months tend to be somewhat tricky. Yet, we found there were six other years that saw these 5 months all close higher and the rest of the year was higher five times, with some solid returns in there. In fact, the only year that was lower the rest of the year was 2018, mainly due to the Fed policy mistake in December 2018.
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“What might surprise many investors is 5 month win streaks are actually incredibly bullish going forward,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “In fact, a year after a 5 month win streak has seen the S&P 500 higher 25 of the past 26 times.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 Index gained more than 35% during this 5 month win streak, the most ever. Yet, the future gains after 5 month win streaks is very impressive, higher 25 out of 26 times a year later. An object in motion tends to stay in motion and this sure seems to be the case here.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Historic August Opens Door To Worst Month Of The Year
What a month August has been so far, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 7%, for the best August since 1984. Not to be outdone, this is the first time in history August saw two separate 6-day (or more) win streaks. Last, with one day to go, the S&P 500 has gained 16 days so far this month, for the most since 16 in April 2019. Meanwhile, it is the most up days for any August since 2003.
“Well, 2020 has laughed at many of these things, but be aware September is indeed the worst month of the year on average,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But what caught our attention was both September and October have a negative return during election years, with October the worst month of the year. Could investors get election jitters again in 2020?”
As show in the LPL Chart of the Day, September tends to be a weak month. In fact, it is the weakest month on average since 1950. Additionally, the last two times August was up more than 5% were 1986 and 2000; the S&P 500 fell 8.5% and 5.4% in September those years.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Breaking things down by just an election year shows that August actually tends to be strong. That obviously played out this year, but now will the weakness we usually see in September and October play out?
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Finally, after today, the S&P 500 will be up 5 consecutive months. Looking at the other years that saw a similar summer rallies, there tended to be more strength the final 4 months of the year, with only the Federal Reserve policy mistake of December 2018 blemishing this impressive track record.
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Yes, this record equity run is extremely stretched, but we would continue to use any pullbacks as an opportunity to add to longer-term core equity holdings, as the economy continues to come back quicker than most expected.
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Peloton Interactive $80.63
Peloton Interactive (PTON) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, September 10, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $566.53 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.13 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $500.00 million to $520.00 million. Short interest has decreased by 62.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 78.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 92.6% above its 200 day moving average of $41.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 11.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Slack Technologies, Inc. $29.07
Slack Technologies, Inc. (WORK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.03 per share on revenue of $208.33 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.04 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $206.00 million to $209.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 96.94% with revenue increasing by 43.70%. Short interest has increased by 93.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.8% above its 200 day moving average of $27.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
lululemon athletica inc. $361.41
lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $832.92 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 41.67% with revenue decreasing by 5.71%. Short interest has decreased by 16.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 38.7% above its 200 day moving average of $260.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 11.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.3% move in recent quarters.
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Chewy, Inc. $61.18
Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Thursday, September 10, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.15 per share on revenue of $1.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 28.57% with revenue increasing by 42.17%. Short interest has decreased by 5.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.3% above its 200 day moving average of $38.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.3% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Kroger Co. $35.47
Kroger Co. (KR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Friday, September 11, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.50 per share on revenue of $29.66 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.64% with revenue increasing by 5.30%. Short interest has increased by 8.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.1% above its 200 day moving average of $31.36. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,648 contracts of the $33.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Zscaler, Inc. $134.34
Zscaler, Inc. (ZS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $118.41 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.02 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $117.00 million to $119.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 57.14% with revenue increasing by 37.51%. Short interest has decreased by 23.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 54.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 68.5% above its 200 day moving average of $79.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,017 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 17.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.4% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Coupa Software $285.81
Coupa Software (COUP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.84 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.14 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.06 to $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.00 million to $119.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.11% with revenue increasing by 24.91%. Short interest has decreased by 12.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 34.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 41.3% above its 200 day moving average of $202.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 538 contracts of the $270.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 18.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lovesac Company $29.44
Lovesac Company (LOVE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $52.58 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 77.42% with revenue increasing by 9.21%. Short interest has decreased by 29.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 41.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.7% above its 200 day moving average of $16.85. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 20.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. $12.86
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.14 per share on revenue of $833.66 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.11) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 135.90% with revenue decreasing by 19.91%. Short interest has increased by 45.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.4% above its 200 day moving average of $11.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,605 contracts of the $11.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
HealthEquity, Inc. $58.47
HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.27 per share on revenue of $171.32 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.31 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.23 to $0.30 per share on revenue of $168.00 million to $173.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue increasing by 97.78%. Short interest has decreased by 3.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.5% below its 200 day moving average of $60.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Edit 10:00AM
The tech wreck is probably not over, despite Friday’s market comeback.
Analysts expect the shakeout in stocks to continue after the long Labor Day weekend, especially in technology names and the Nasdaq, areas of the market that notched the sharpest gains.
After August’s 7% gain in the S&P 500, stocks started September strong, and then just as quickly rolled over. The Nasdaq lost 5% Thursday and was down sharply Friday but pared losses to decline 1.5%. The S&P 500 was down about 2.3% for the week, even after a 3.5% loss Thursday.
“I think this is a good wake-up call and a reminder that there are risks out there,” said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management. “In August, we did take a little bit off the table.”
Analysts expect the week ahead to be busy, with holidays ending and more market pros back at their desks. There is some economic data, most importantly Friday’s consumer price index. The reading on consumer inflation is expected to show little change in core inflation with forecasts for a gain of just 0.2% in August, or 1.6% year over year.
Froth blowing off
The stock sell-off came as market pros were becoming increasingly wary of froth in the market, particularly in tech and momentum names. On Friday, it was revealed that SoftBank was behind billions in large options bets on individual tech stocks, like Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Tesla. News reports said the trades were made over the past month, and SoftBank had been building unusually large positions in call options, or those that bet the prices of underlying stocks would rise.
One analyst said the fact that SoftBank was “gunning the market” makes him worry that there is more selling to come in Nasdaq names. As SoftBank bought call options, the sellers had to buy stocks, conceivably driving up prices in a trading feedback loop.
“It’s just a trip to the casino,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “If they’re supposed to be an investment company taking a long-term horizon, then trying to juice your short-term return through options, you’ve turned into a hedge fund.”
JPMorgan strategists said they expect the market to recover gradually, but there are still presidential election uncertainties looming in the next couple of months.
“The significant reduction in previously extreme long positions in Nasdaq by momentum traders should allow the equity market to recover over the coming weeks, as happened after the June 11th correction,” noted JPMorgan analysts. “But a repeat of the strong gains seen during July and August is less likely over the next two months.”
Grohowski said there could be more selling in the tech and internet companies, or those that were viewed did well as workers stayed home and the economy was shutdown. “It’s not the start of a big lasting correction, but a forewarning the next couple of weeks and months are going to be choppy. I think it’s going to be a sideways kind of market,” Grohowski said. He added the market could be choppy in the week ahead.
“We’re a little more cautious, not to mention the market is trading at 23 times our earnings estimates for 2021,” said Grohowski. He said the fact there is about $4.5 trillion in money market funds is a bullish signm since that money could find its way into the stock market.
Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives strategy at BTIG, said the S&P 500 could dip to its 200-day moving average, or 3,092, before rebounding, which would be about a 15% move in total.
“I don’t think the sell-off is over. Nasdaq is up 83%s since March 23, the S&P is up 63%,” said Emanuel.
Small Caps Best Day After Labor Day
In the last 21 years, only Russell 2000 has registered an average gain of 0.16% on the Tuesday after the long Labor Day weekend. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have struggled with negative average performance. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have been up five of the last eight years, but DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all have fallen for the last three years on Tuesday. On Wednesday the market’s performance has been varied. DJIA has performed the best, up 76.2% of the time with an average gain of 0.25%. S&P 500 is worst, up only 42.9% of the time with an average gain of 0.13%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Big August: Bullish or Bearish?
Big August 2020 logged the 4th biggest August percent gain for the S&P 500 since 1949 and the 6th biggest since 1930. But, is this bullish or bearish for the market in the coming months? Hopefully the table below provides some perspective by comparing the previous Top 20 S&P 500 Augusts since 1949 to July, September, Q4 and the succeeding “Best Six Months” November-April.
Subsequent Septembers were down 15 of 20 years for an average loss of -1.0% (median loss of -0.7%). Q4 is positive with gains in 13 of the 20 years for an average gain of 1.0% (median gain of 3.0%). The following Best Six Months are more bullish, up 16 of the 20 years with an average gain of 7.6% (median gain of 8.5%).
Looking at just the 7 years that were preceded by big Julys shows some improvement for September but Q4s are worse, containing the largest Q4 losses. Back-to-back big Julys and big Augusts were followed by improved Best Six Months results, up in all 7 instances with a higher average and median gain and the top gain.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Analyzing the Jobs Report
The jobs market remains strong, as the August nonfarm payrolls came in at a solid 1.37 million jobs created, right in line with expectations. This was the fourth consecutive month of gains, up 10.6 million over this time frame. In March and April more than 22 million jobs were lost, so we still aren’t quite to half of the jobs recovered though.
This was the second consecutive month there was a very weak ADP private payrolls number ahead of the monthly jobs report, adding to the worries, but the actual nonfarm payroll number was once again quite solid. Don’t forget, just yesterday we saw initial jobless claims come in at 881,000, the lowest number since the week ending March 14, another improving employment number.
The big surprise in today’s report though was the unemployment rate fell to 8.4%, from 10.2% last month and an expected 9.8%. This was the lowest unemployment rate since 4.4% in March.
“This was an impressive report and once again showed the economy remained quite resilient,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But 8% unemployment is 8% unemployment, so let’s not get too excited, but we’ll still take this improving trend in the employment picture.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, even though more than 10 million jobs have been created in the past four months, the sad truth is we are still quite a long way from recovering all the jobs lost due to the pandemic. In fact, looking at previous cycles, it has taken years for all of the lost jobs to come back and this time doesn’t appear any different.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One thing to consider is could this solid number make it harder for Washington to agree on the next stimulus plan? We are watching this closely, but with the two sides still close to a trillion dollars apart, today’s report will likely do little to help the two sides come to a quick resolution.
Last, don’t forget that stocks gained more than 60% in less than six months, so some weakness would be perfectly normal. In fact, looking at the two previous strongest starts to a bull market ever (’82 and ’09) both saw some weakness right around now.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
3 Charts To Watch If You Are Bullish
The S&P 500 Index just closed the door on its best August since 1986, making new all-time highs along the way, while also closing up five months in a row.
First things first, make no mistake about it; this is a new bull market. That of course doesn’t mean it will last years like previous bull markets, but a nearly 57% gain in 5 months is what we’d classify as a bull market.
Here are all the bull markets going back to the Great Depression and where this one ranks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Now let’s dig into the 5 month win streak. It is quite rare for stocks to gain from April through August, as the summer months tend to be somewhat tricky. Yet, we found there were six other years that saw these 5 months all close higher and the rest of the year was higher five times, with some solid returns in there. In fact, the only year that was lower the rest of the year was 2018, mainly due to the Fed policy mistake in December 2018.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“What might surprise many investors is 5 month win streaks are actually incredibly bullish going forward,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “In fact, a year after a 5 month win streak has seen the S&P 500 higher 25 of the past 26 times.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 Index gained more than 35% during this 5 month win streak, the most ever. Yet, the future gains after 5 month win streaks is very impressive, higher 25 out of 26 times a year later. An object in motion tends to stay in motion and this sure seems to be the case here.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Historic August Opens Door To Worst Month Of The Year
What a month August has been so far, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 7%, for the best August since 1984. Not to be outdone, this is the first time in history August saw two separate 6-day (or more) win streaks. Last, with one day to go, the S&P 500 has gained 16 days so far this month, for the most since 16 in April 2019. Meanwhile, it is the most up days for any August since 2003.
“Well, 2020 has laughed at many of these things, but be aware September is indeed the worst month of the year on average,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But what caught our attention was both September and October have a negative return during election years, with October the worst month of the year. Could investors get election jitters again in 2020?”
As show in the LPL Chart of the Day, September tends to be a weak month. In fact, it is the weakest month on average since 1950. Additionally, the last two times August was up more than 5% were 1986 and 2000; the S&P 500 fell 8.5% and 5.4% in September those years.
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Breaking things down by just an election year shows that August actually tends to be strong. That obviously played out this year, but now will the weakness we usually see in September and October play out?
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Finally, after today, the S&P 500 will be up 5 consecutive months. Looking at the other years that saw a similar summer rallies, there tended to be more strength the final 4 months of the year, with only the Federal Reserve policy mistake of December 2018 blemishing this impressive track record.
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Yes, this record equity run is extremely stretched, but we would continue to use any pullbacks as an opportunity to add to longer-term core equity holdings, as the economy continues to come back quicker than most expected.
- $PTON
- $WORK
- $LULU
- $CHWY
- $KR
- $ZS
- $COUP
- $LOVE
- $AEO
- $HQY
- $GFN
- $GME
- $ORCL
- $PLAY
- $RH
- $HDS
- $UXIN
- $MCFT
- $FCEL
- $CASY
- $MEIP
- $NAV
- $REVG
- $NSSC
- $ABM
- $SCWX
- $PHR
- $ALOT
- $CVGW
- $DSGX
- $ZUMZ
- $GIII
- $AVAV
- $BIOX
- $BIGC
- $LAKE
- $LTRX
- $BBCP
- $VRNT
- $FARM
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Peloton Interactive $80.63
Peloton Interactive (PTON) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, September 10, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $566.53 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.13 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $500.00 million to $520.00 million. Short interest has decreased by 62.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 78.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 92.6% above its 200 day moving average of $41.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 11.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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Slack Technologies, Inc. $29.07
Slack Technologies, Inc. (WORK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.03 per share on revenue of $208.33 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.04 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $206.00 million to $209.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 96.94% with revenue increasing by 43.70%. Short interest has increased by 93.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.8% above its 200 day moving average of $27.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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lululemon athletica inc. $361.41
lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $832.92 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 41.67% with revenue decreasing by 5.71%. Short interest has decreased by 16.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 38.7% above its 200 day moving average of $260.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 11.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.3% move in recent quarters.
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Chewy, Inc. $61.18
Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Thursday, September 10, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.15 per share on revenue of $1.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 28.57% with revenue increasing by 42.17%. Short interest has decreased by 5.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.3% above its 200 day moving average of $38.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.3% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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Kroger Co. $35.47
Kroger Co. (KR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Friday, September 11, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.50 per share on revenue of $29.66 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.64% with revenue increasing by 5.30%. Short interest has increased by 8.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.1% above its 200 day moving average of $31.36. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,648 contracts of the $33.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.
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Zscaler, Inc. $134.34
Zscaler, Inc. (ZS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $118.41 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.02 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $117.00 million to $119.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 57.14% with revenue increasing by 37.51%. Short interest has decreased by 23.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 54.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 68.5% above its 200 day moving average of $79.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,017 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 17.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.4% move in recent quarters.
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Coupa Software $285.81
Coupa Software (COUP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.84 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.14 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.06 to $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.00 million to $119.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.11% with revenue increasing by 24.91%. Short interest has decreased by 12.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 34.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 41.3% above its 200 day moving average of $202.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 538 contracts of the $270.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 18.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.
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Lovesac Company $29.44
Lovesac Company (LOVE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $52.58 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 77.42% with revenue increasing by 9.21%. Short interest has decreased by 29.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 41.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.7% above its 200 day moving average of $16.85. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 20.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. $12.86
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.14 per share on revenue of $833.66 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.11) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 135.90% with revenue decreasing by 19.91%. Short interest has increased by 45.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.4% above its 200 day moving average of $11.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,605 contracts of the $11.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.
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HealthEquity, Inc. $58.47
HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.27 per share on revenue of $171.32 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.31 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.23 to $0.30 per share on revenue of $168.00 million to $173.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue increasing by 97.78%. Short interest has decreased by 3.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.5% below its 200 day moving average of $60.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.
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The tech wreck is probably not over, despite Friday’s market comeback.
Analysts expect the shakeout in stocks to continue after the long Labor Day weekend, especially in technology names and the Nasdaq, areas of the market that notched the sharpest gains.
After August’s 7% gain in the S&P 500, stocks started September strong, and then just as quickly rolled over. The Nasdaq lost 5% Thursday and was down sharply Friday but pared losses to decline 1.5%. The S&P 500 was down about 2.3% for the week, even after a 3.5% loss Thursday.
“I think this is a good wake-up call and a reminder that there are risks out there,” said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management. “In August, we did take a little bit off the table.”
Analysts expect the week ahead to be busy, with holidays ending and more market pros back at their desks. There is some economic data, most importantly Friday’s consumer price index. The reading on consumer inflation is expected to show little change in core inflation with forecasts for a gain of just 0.2% in August, or 1.6% year over year.
Froth blowing off
The stock sell-off came as market pros were becoming increasingly wary of froth in the market, particularly in tech and momentum names. On Friday, it was revealed that SoftBank was behind billions in large options bets on individual tech stocks, like Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Tesla. News reports said the trades were made over the past month, and SoftBank had been building unusually large positions in call options, or those that bet the prices of underlying stocks would rise.
One analyst said the fact that SoftBank was “gunning the market” makes him worry that there is more selling to come in Nasdaq names. As SoftBank bought call options, the sellers had to buy stocks, conceivably driving up prices in a trading feedback loop.
“It’s just a trip to the casino,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “If they’re supposed to be an investment company taking a long-term horizon, then trying to juice your short-term return through options, you’ve turned into a hedge fund.”
JPMorgan strategists said they expect the market to recover gradually, but there are still presidential election uncertainties looming in the next couple of months.
“The significant reduction in previously extreme long positions in Nasdaq by momentum traders should allow the equity market to recover over the coming weeks, as happened after the June 11th correction,” noted JPMorgan analysts. “But a repeat of the strong gains seen during July and August is less likely over the next two months.”
Grohowski said there could be more selling in the tech and internet companies, or those that were viewed did well as workers stayed home and the economy was shutdown. “It’s not the start of a big lasting correction, but a forewarning the next couple of weeks and months are going to be choppy. I think it’s going to be a sideways kind of market,” Grohowski said. He added the market could be choppy in the week ahead.
“We’re a little more cautious, not to mention the market is trading at 23 times our earnings estimates for 2021,” said Grohowski. He said the fact there is about $4.5 trillion in money market funds is a bullish signm since that money could find its way into the stock market.
Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives strategy at BTIG, said the S&P 500 could dip to its 200-day moving average, or 3,092, before rebounding, which would be about a 15% move in total.
“I don’t think the sell-off is over. Nasdaq is up 83%s since March 23, the S&P is up 63%,” said Emanuel.
Small Caps Best Day After Labor Day
In the last 21 years, only Russell 2000 has registered an average gain of 0.16% on the Tuesday after the long Labor Day weekend. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have struggled with negative average performance. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have been up five of the last eight years, but DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all have fallen for the last three years on Tuesday. On Wednesday the market’s performance has been varied. DJIA has performed the best, up 76.2% of the time with an average gain of 0.25%. S&P 500 is worst, up only 42.9% of the time with an average gain of 0.13%.
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Big August: Bullish or Bearish?
Big August 2020 logged the 4th biggest August percent gain for the S&P 500 since 1949 and the 6th biggest since 1930. But, is this bullish or bearish for the market in the coming months? Hopefully the table below provides some perspective by comparing the previous Top 20 S&P 500 Augusts since 1949 to July, September, Q4 and the succeeding “Best Six Months” November-April.
Subsequent Septembers were down 15 of 20 years for an average loss of -1.0% (median loss of -0.7%). Q4 is positive with gains in 13 of the 20 years for an average gain of 1.0% (median gain of 3.0%). The following Best Six Months are more bullish, up 16 of the 20 years with an average gain of 7.6% (median gain of 8.5%).
Looking at just the 7 years that were preceded by big Julys shows some improvement for September but Q4s are worse, containing the largest Q4 losses. Back-to-back big Julys and big Augusts were followed by improved Best Six Months results, up in all 7 instances with a higher average and median gain and the top gain.
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Analyzing the Jobs Report
The jobs market remains strong, as the August nonfarm payrolls came in at a solid 1.37 million jobs created, right in line with expectations. This was the fourth consecutive month of gains, up 10.6 million over this time frame. In March and April more than 22 million jobs were lost, so we still aren’t quite to half of the jobs recovered though.
This was the second consecutive month there was a very weak ADP private payrolls number ahead of the monthly jobs report, adding to the worries, but the actual nonfarm payroll number was once again quite solid. Don’t forget, just yesterday we saw initial jobless claims come in at 881,000, the lowest number since the week ending March 14, another improving employment number.
The big surprise in today’s report though was the unemployment rate fell to 8.4%, from 10.2% last month and an expected 9.8%. This was the lowest unemployment rate since 4.4% in March.
“This was an impressive report and once again showed the economy remained quite resilient,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But 8% unemployment is 8% unemployment, so let’s not get too excited, but we’ll still take this improving trend in the employment picture.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, even though more than 10 million jobs have been created in the past four months, the sad truth is we are still quite a long way from recovering all the jobs lost due to the pandemic. In fact, looking at previous cycles, it has taken years for all of the lost jobs to come back and this time doesn’t appear any different.
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One thing to consider is could this solid number make it harder for Washington to agree on the next stimulus plan? We are watching this closely, but with the two sides still close to a trillion dollars apart, today’s report will likely do little to help the two sides come to a quick resolution.
Last, don’t forget that stocks gained more than 60% in less than six months, so some weakness would be perfectly normal. In fact, looking at the two previous strongest starts to a bull market ever (’82 and ’09) both saw some weakness right around now.
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3 Charts To Watch If You Are Bullish
The S&P 500 Index just closed the door on its best August since 1986, making new all-time highs along the way, while also closing up five months in a row.
First things first, make no mistake about it; this is a new bull market. That of course doesn’t mean it will last years like previous bull markets, but a nearly 57% gain in 5 months is what we’d classify as a bull market.
Here are all the bull markets going back to the Great Depression and where this one ranks.
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Now let’s dig into the 5 month win streak. It is quite rare for stocks to gain from April through August, as the summer months tend to be somewhat tricky. Yet, we found there were six other years that saw these 5 months all close higher and the rest of the year was higher five times, with some solid returns in there. In fact, the only year that was lower the rest of the year was 2018, mainly due to the Fed policy mistake in December 2018.
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“What might surprise many investors is 5 month win streaks are actually incredibly bullish going forward,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “In fact, a year after a 5 month win streak has seen the S&P 500 higher 25 of the past 26 times.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 Index gained more than 35% during this 5 month win streak, the most ever. Yet, the future gains after 5 month win streaks is very impressive, higher 25 out of 26 times a year later. An object in motion tends to stay in motion and this sure seems to be the case here.
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Historic August Opens Door To Worst Month Of The Year
What a month August has been so far, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 7%, for the best August since 1984. Not to be outdone, this is the first time in history August saw two separate 6-day (or more) win streaks. Last, with one day to go, the S&P 500 has gained 16 days so far this month, for the most since 16 in April 2019. Meanwhile, it is the most up days for any August since 2003.
“Well, 2020 has laughed at many of these things, but be aware September is indeed the worst month of the year on average,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But what caught our attention was both September and October have a negative return during election years, with October the worst month of the year. Could investors get election jitters again in 2020?”
As show in the LPL Chart of the Day, September tends to be a weak month. In fact, it is the weakest month on average since 1950. Additionally, the last two times August was up more than 5% were 1986 and 2000; the S&P 500 fell 8.5% and 5.4% in September those years.
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Breaking things down by just an election year shows that August actually tends to be strong. That obviously played out this year, but now will the weakness we usually see in September and October play out?
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Finally, after today, the S&P 500 will be up 5 consecutive months. Looking at the other years that saw a similar summer rallies, there tended to be more strength the final 4 months of the year, with only the Federal Reserve policy mistake of December 2018 blemishing this impressive track record.
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Yes, this record equity run is extremely stretched, but we would continue to use any pullbacks as an opportunity to add to longer-term core equity holdings, as the economy continues to come back quicker than most expected.
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Peloton Interactive $80.63
Peloton Interactive (PTON) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, September 10, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $566.53 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.13 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $500.00 million to $520.00 million. Short interest has decreased by 62.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 78.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 92.6% above its 200 day moving average of $41.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 11.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Slack Technologies, Inc. $29.07
Slack Technologies, Inc. (WORK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.03 per share on revenue of $208.33 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.04 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $206.00 million to $209.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 96.94% with revenue increasing by 43.70%. Short interest has increased by 93.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.8% above its 200 day moving average of $27.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
lululemon athletica inc. $361.41
lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $832.92 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 41.67% with revenue decreasing by 5.71%. Short interest has decreased by 16.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 38.7% above its 200 day moving average of $260.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 11.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.3% move in recent quarters.
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Chewy, Inc. $61.18
Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Thursday, September 10, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.15 per share on revenue of $1.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 28.57% with revenue increasing by 42.17%. Short interest has decreased by 5.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.3% above its 200 day moving average of $38.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.3% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Kroger Co. $35.47
Kroger Co. (KR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Friday, September 11, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.50 per share on revenue of $29.66 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.64% with revenue increasing by 5.30%. Short interest has increased by 8.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.1% above its 200 day moving average of $31.36. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,648 contracts of the $33.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Zscaler, Inc. $134.34
Zscaler, Inc. (ZS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $118.41 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.02 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $117.00 million to $119.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 57.14% with revenue increasing by 37.51%. Short interest has decreased by 23.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 54.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 68.5% above its 200 day moving average of $79.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,017 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 17.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.4% move in recent quarters.
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Coupa Software $285.81
Coupa Software (COUP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.84 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.14 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.06 to $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.00 million to $119.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.11% with revenue increasing by 24.91%. Short interest has decreased by 12.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 34.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 41.3% above its 200 day moving average of $202.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 538 contracts of the $270.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 18.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.
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Lovesac Company $29.44
Lovesac Company (LOVE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $52.58 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 77.42% with revenue increasing by 9.21%. Short interest has decreased by 29.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 41.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.7% above its 200 day moving average of $16.85. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 20.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. $12.86
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.14 per share on revenue of $833.66 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.11) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 135.90% with revenue decreasing by 19.91%. Short interest has increased by 45.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.4% above its 200 day moving average of $11.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,605 contracts of the $11.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.
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HealthEquity, Inc. $58.47
HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.27 per share on revenue of $171.32 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.31 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.23 to $0.30 per share on revenue of $168.00 million to $173.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue increasing by 97.78%. Short interest has decreased by 3.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.5% below its 200 day moving average of $60.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.
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